Famous Milly sees off odds-on Malaya

Famous Milly beats the odds on favourite Malaya and wins the Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle at @AintreeRaces pic.twitter.com/pADbQEEzA8

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) 9 December 2017

On 9th December at the 14:05 at Aintree, Famous Milly saw off odds on favourite Malaya, who wasn't such a 'Dead Cert' after all. A shocking ride on the favourite mind you!

4.10 Sedgefield, Tuesday, October 3

Brian Ellison’s 5-year-old mare Our Kylie couldn’t repeat last year’s success in the valuable Tote Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle at the Galway Festival in July, but has won three of her last four starts over hurdles and returned to form with a convincing win over course and distance last month. The daughter of Jeremy has been raised just 4lb for that success and, with underfoot conditions in her favour, she must take a world of beating in the Durham National Returns to Sedgefield Handicap Hurdle (4.10) on Tuesday. Brian Ellison has a respectable 23-87 (26%) strike rate with hurdlers he’s sent up the A1(M) to the Durham track during the last five seasons, while conditional jockey Kaine Wood has proved an asset since joining the yard last year. All in all, Our Kylie has plenty going for her and looks a decent bet to improve her already excellent strike rate. The 11/4 currently available with Betvictor probably won’t last long.

Selection: Sedgefield 4.10 Our Kylie to win 9/4

The Wrong Horse: Update

By now I'm sure we're all aware of July's 'wrong horse' situation at Great Yarmouth, where Charlie McBride trained 2yo outsider Mandarin Princess romped home at odds of 50-1, only for us later to discover that, due to a mix up, the horse was in fact 3yo stablemate Millie’s Kiss. As is the story wasn't unusual enough, the update to it is perhaps the cherry on the cake.

McBride was fined £1500, which to me seems to be somewhere between 'very reasonable' and 'like getting off lightly'. Lot's of people will have backed the odd-on favourite on the course on the day. These people likely threw away their tickets and so, even when multiple online bookies announced that they'd be paying out on the 4-6 fav Fyre Cay (which came 2nd), this will have been no use to them.

With that in mind I'd at least have hoped for a bit of contrition on account that this mistake had taken place. Instead though the BBC articles reveals that McBride actually bet on his horse winning a tidy £600. Again, that's fair enough as it was a longshot, so who can blame the owner for having a punt on what he thought at the time was a horse with an outside hope. What get's my goat though, is when Mcbride states "I had £10 each way and was hoping she might scrape into the first three as a fun bet. That's all. The fine's £1,500, so I'm still £1,000 out of pocket."

There's an air to this of bemoaning the fact that the winnings from this bet didn't covering the fine he received for this horrendous error.  I'm glad I wasn't one of those on the favourite, and then read that, as I'd be majorly annoyed at the punishment and response! You can't make this stuff up!

Germany vs San Marino - June 10th

Germany will play against San Marino on June 10th in what we can expect to be a very one sided World Cup 2018 Qualifier. Nuremberg will be hosting a likely predictable match between the best team in the world and one of the worst in Europe. With Germany leading the group with 5 wins in 5 matches and only one goal conceded, there isn’t too much to talk about in terms of upsets in this match up. San Marino,  have lost every one of their group games so far, with only one goal scored against Norway.

With the Confederation Cup as the nearest objective, Joachim Low is aiming for some young players to gain international experience prior to the World Cup. This match could serve as something of 'pre-season', but due to the nature of the rival, it’s hard even to see it in this way. Young prospects such as Timo Werner, Julian Brandt and Amine Younes are ones to watch in this match, as they’re making their first steps with the national team. San Marino will have their usual line-up, with most of the team defending Simoncini’s net until the inevitable goal arrives.

This match can be reduced to how many goals Germany will score, on account that they are 1-100 for an outright win. The last encounter ended in a crushing 8-0 defeat for San Marino, and can serve as a comparison point. In this kind of match, betting for the correct score might be the best bet for someone looking for a punt. Although a little riskier, the payoff usually is greater. For example, a hat-trick for Timo Werner has a good payoff  at 5/2, so it might be a good place to look. Enjoy the game!

WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play, Wednesday, March 22

The WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play gets underway at the Austin Country Club, Texas on Wednesday and may present last year’s losing semi-finalist Rory McIlroy with an opportunity to improve his already impressive match play record. The 27-year-old Northern Irishman has finished in the top ten on all three outings this season and arrives relatively fresh, which must be an advantage which features three days of group matches followed by head-to-head knockout matches over the weekend. McIlroy should have too many guns for Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, Soren Kjeldsen in Group 2 and cannot face anyone ranked tenth or lower in the world rankings until, at least, the quarter-finals, so looks well worthy of support at 15/2 with Sky Bet.

Selection: Rory McIlroy to win outright (15/2 with Sky Bet)

1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15

Neon Wolf has won both starts over hurdles with the minimum of fuss and was particularly impressive when drawing clear on the run-in to beat Elgin by 9 lengths in the Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle, over 1 mile 7½ furlongs, at Haydock in January. The stoutly bred gelding steps up in class and distance in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle, over 2 miles 5 furlongs, at Cheltenham on Tuesday, but looks a worthy favourite. Harry Fry’s 6-year-old is already the best horse in the race, according to official ratings, won his sole point start over 3 miles and has winning form on good to soft and soft going, so has plenty going for him. Of course, he also remains open to significant improvement after just four starts in all, so it will take a very smart performance to lower his colours.

Selection: Cheltenham 1.30 Neon Wolf to win (7/4 favourite with Sky Bet, who are offering new and existing customers their money back as a free bet, up to £20, if he’s beaten)

4.15 Wincanton, Thursday, February 2

In the Stewart Tory Memorial Hunters’ Chase (4.15) at Wincanton on Thursday, Ask The Weatherman has won all bar one of his nine point-to-point races and is, unsurprisingly, held in high regard by connections. The lightly-raced eight-year-old looked as good as ever when galloping on remorselessly to beat subsequent winner Ceasar Milan by 15 lengths in the Men’s Open race at the Larkhill Racing Club meeting last month and, with multiple point-to-point champion Will Biddick in the saddle, must have every chance of making his first attempt over regulation fences a winning one.

Selection: Wincanton 4.15 Ask The Weatherman to win