In the Brian Wilson Live on August 26th
Handicap (7.30) on Monday evening, I’m pickin’ up good vibrations
(sorry) about Sky Rocket, who showed his first worthwhile form
on turf when last seen at Goodwood in June. Having finished stone
cold last on his two previous attempts on grass-covered ground, he
kept on well, despite flashing his tail, to finish third of nine,
beaten just a length, in a 0-75 apprentice handicap over 1 mile 2
furlongs at the West Sussex course 66 days.
His absence since is a worry, as is his
temperament, but a bigger concern is that the first and second at
Goodwood, Danzay and Cheeky Rascal, have since run 13 races between
them without winning one. Nevertheless, the son of top
middle-distance performer Azamour should be suited by, but so far
remains unexposed over, 1 mile 2 furlongs and remains open to
significant improvement after just five starts.
He clearly isn’t the best horse in
Sylvester Kirk’s Upper Lambourn yard but, by the same token, the
level of the opposition is hardly awe-inspiring. If he can confirm
the promise of his Goodwood run, he must surely be there or
thereabouts once again, especially off a handicap mark 1lb lower than
last time.
Sky Rocket comes with risks attached,
but hopefully the negatives about him will be factored into his price
and he can give us a decent run for our money at rewarding odds. In
the absence of early prices, odds of 8/1, as per the Racing Post
betting forecast, look fair enough in a run-of-the-mill contest.
North Yorkshire trainer Roger Fell is
in decent form at present, with a 6-19 (32%) strike rate in the last
14 days, and may be able to improve that record with Zylan in
the Polyflor Handicap (3.35) at Ayr on Monday. The son of top-class
sprinter Kyllachy had no answer to Exprompt in the closing stages at
Hamilton last time, but only succumbed in the last hundred yards, on
the severe hill to the finish, at the South Lanarkshire course and
may be better suited by this less rigorous test of stamina. The third
horse home that day, Red Force One, was only beaten two necks in a
0-80 lady amateur riders’ handicap at Chester on Friday, which
augurs well for Zylan as he steps back up into 0-85 company.
In fact, the six-year-old won in this
grade, over 6 furlongs at Southwell, off a handicap mark of 83 in
April, so he should be competitive off a mark of 80, especially with
Conor Murtagh taking off a useful 5lb. Zylan has been campaigned, at
least until recently, over sprint distances this season, but showed
when winning over 7½ furlongs at Beverley on his penultimate start
that this sort of distance, especially on a flat track, is well
within his compass. He’s drawn in the outside stall but one, which
should, theoretically, put him at a disadvantage running around a
tight left hand bend but, paradoxically, this doesn’t appear to be
the case at Ayr.
In the Follow @Racing_UK on Twitter
Handicap (3.50) at Thirsk on Wednesday, Aljady won at Redcar 11 days
ago despite hanging badly left in the closing stages and seems sure
to be popular on his first venture into handicap company. However,
preference on this occasion is for the proven form of Muscika,
who won a 0-85 contest at Ayr in taking style on his penultimate
start, before just being touched off, after being denied a clear run,
off his revised mark in a 0-90 contest at Nottingham three weeks ago.
The Kyllachy gelding needed a couple of
runs to find his form, following wind surgery earlier in the year,
but his Nottingham effort was about his best yet and he can confirm
the form with the third, Red Pike, despite being 4lb worse off for 2½
lengths. A winner over course and distance on his debut for David
O’Meara early last season, Muscika has shown his best form on good
or faster going – including on firm going at Nottingham last time –
so he shouldn’t be unduly inconvenienced if the sun continues to
beat down on the North Yorkshire course and he has the best of the
draw, in stall 8.
Muscika had just two runs as a juvenile
for Richard Hannon and, after what is best described as an
“educational” three-year-old campaign – during which he won
twice, despite obvious signs of immaturity – is starting to fulfil
his potential as a sprinter.
The Chester Vase Stakes (3.35) at
Chester on Wednesday features several well-bred, unexposed types, but
Ispolini was only just touched off in similar company in the
bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown 12 days ago and can open his account
at Pattern level. The winner at Sandown, Sevenna Star, had previously
won his maiden at Windsor by 14 lengths, eased down and, although
trainer John Gosden has a wealth of riches in the Classic department
this season, remains a possible for the Derby next month.
So, too, does Ispolini, who can be
backed at 33/1 for the Epsom Classic. The Dubawi colt started at
odd-on for his debut, over an extended mile, at Nottingham last
November but, despite staying on well in the final furlong, could
only finish fourth of ten, beaten 4 lengths, behind Come On Tier.
Stepped up to 1 mile 2 furlongs at Kempton four weeks later, he once
again started odds-on, but won convincingly, beating subsequent
winner Glencadam Master by 2 lengths.
He is clearly effective on the
prevailing good to soft going and, having run creditably over a
fairly testing 1 mile 2 furlongs at Sandown last time, should find an
extra two furlongs around the turns of Chester well with his compass.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey William Buick remain in
fine form, despite failing to win the 2,000 or 1,000 Guineas last
weekend, and can gain further consolation here.
Tricky Dicky was beaten just a
head in a 0-105 contest over 5 furlongs at Southwell when last seen
in January so, off a 1lb higher mark, must have every chance of
resuming winning ways in the Trifecta Handicap (3.35) at the
Nottinghamshire track on Thursday. Olly Williams’ 5-year-old steps
back up to 6 furlongs after an absence of 79 days, which is a slight
worry, but he has won twice over course and distance and a
reproduction of his latest piece of form could make him look very
well handicapped in this 0-85 contest. He’s now finished second on
his last four starts, but there appears to be no suggestion that he’s
anything but genuine and he probably just needs a change of luck.
He’s also 11lb higher in the weights than when last winning, over
course and distance last August, which would sound alarm bells, but
for the fact that he appears to have taken another major step forward
since.
Smart punters
know that fancied Irish raiders sent across from the Emerald
Isle to the Cheltenham Festival command respect.
Bookmakers have
cottoned on too and made a number of horses trained in Ireland
ante-post favourites for various events among the 28-race four-day
National Hunt racing spectacular.
This trend is
especially prominent in novice contests, according to the latest
Cheltenham Festival betting. Are the lofty reputations of these
Irish horses deserved, though?
We're taking a
look at six fancies being ferried across to Cheltenham and whether
they offer value based on what they’ve achieved and key race
trends.
Getabird
Closutton trainer
Willie Mullins has saddled three of the last five winners of the
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which opens the Cheltenham Festival,
so Getabird heads the betting for this year’s renewal of
the 2m curtain-raiser.
Owned by Rich
and Susannah Ricci, the six-year-old is an Irish point and dual
bumper winner who landed his hurdles bow over 2m 4f on heavy ground
at Punchestown last December. Getabird followed
up by dropping back in trip for a nine-length success
over Mengli Khan in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer at that track
in January.
Only one
outright starting price favourite has landed the Supreme spoils in
the last decade, although that was fellow Mullins inmate Douvan.
This poor recent record for market principals, coupled with wins
for Getabird over further, may give some punters pause,
though the range of free
bets available on the Oddschecker website for the race offer an
option for cautious gamblers.
Footpad
Let's move on
from 2m novice hurdlers to chasers and red-hot Arkle Challenge
Trophy fancy Footpad. Although a well-beaten fourth in last
year’s Champion Hurdle, this Simon Munir and
Isaac Souede owned six-year-old has really come into his
own over fences.
Footpad is 3-3
since being sent chasing and finally turned the tables on old
hurdling rival Petit Mouchoir in the
Irish Arkle at Leopardstown’s inaugural Dublin
Racing Festival in February. A five-length success there was his
second consecutive Grade 1 triumph, so he goes to Cheltenham seeking
a hat-trick.
Handler Mullins
speaks very highly of Foodpad and it’s easy to see
why after he’s looked a natural since taking to the chasing sphere.
Unlike the Supreme, favourites have fared far better in the Arkle in
recent times, with five going in during the last six renewals.
Apple’s Jade
There is
arguably no tougher mare currently in training than Apple’s
Jade. Mullins’ loss during a fallout with
owners Gigginstown House Stud over fees was certainly
Gordon Elliott’s gain.
Such is the
confidence in Apple’s Jade that connections have been bold enough
to race her against the geldings in all three of her starts this
season. She has socked it to them when stepping out of competing
against her own sex too.
A gutsy winner
of last year’s David Nicholson OLBG Mares’ Hurdle,
Apple’s Jade beat two fellow Cheltenham Festival winners in the
ill-fated Nichols Canyon and Supasundae in Grade 1 races
at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown respectively.
Given what that latter rival has done since, the form is very strong
and other mares – like the bookies – are running scared she will
defend her Cheltenham crown.
Samcro
For
many, Samcro is the Irish banker of the Festival. Elliott
and Gigginstown team up again with this unbeaten point,
triple bumper and hurdle winner whose intended
target is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle over
2m 5f.
Although dropped
back in trip to 2m for a Grade 1 triumph in the Deloitte Novice
Hurdle last time out, Samcro looks scarily good and you
cannot help but be impressed by what he’s done so far.
Like stablemate Apple’s Jade, though, he is odds-on in
the ante-post betting.
Presenting Percy
Breaking up
the Mullins and Elliott duopoly of Cheltenham Festival
novice fancies is Presenting Percy. Trained by Patrick Kelly,
the seven-year-old has won two of his four starts since switching to
fences and was also pitched back over hurdles to plunder
the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park in January.
Presenting Percy
is a Cheltenham Festival winner just like Apple’s Jade after
landing the 3m Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final
in 2017. Although a leading contender for RSA Chase due to
his exploits over the bigger obstacles, he did get
turned over by Our Duke went sent off at evens last time out
and beaten favourites on their previous run have a poor Festival
record.
Laurina
And, finally,
Mullins’ novice mare Laurina is all the rage for the Dawn
Run – the newest race introduced at Cheltenham in 2015. Brought
over from France and sent to Closutton in November, the
five-year-old is looking to follow in the footsteps
of stablemates Limini and Let’s Dance.
With impressive
Grade 3 winning form already under her belt, Laurina certainly
has claims to be among the market principals for the novice mares’
event at the Festival. If you’re looking to take this Irish fancy
on, though, all her career starts have come on very soft or heavy
ground. Backers are thus gambling that Laurina will act on
the better ground.
Bourton-on-the-Water trainer Ben
Pauling has only held a licence, in his own right, since 2013/14, but
he already has a reputation for patience, which is reflected by a
smart crop of bumper horses for 2017/18. Backing newcomers is always
something of a lottery but, on Sunday, Pauling unleashes Hero’s
Creek in the Grandnational.Fans Standard Open National Hunt Flat
Race (5.05) at Southwell and the 5-year-old looks worthy of support.
Pauling has made no secret of his
liking for the son of Kalanisi – sire of Triumph and Champion
Hurdle winner Katchit – and has reported him as looking well and
going nicely ahead of his racecourse debut after injuring his hip
last season. His trainer reportedly had a few races in mind for
Hero’s Creek in November but, once again, his patience can win the
day.
Of his opponents, Strike In Milan was
sold for 105,000 guineas after finishing second on his sole point
start last April and could go well in a first-time tongue tie,
although Tom George is going through a quiet spell, while Thibault
was third in a better race than this on his debut at Ludlow in
December, but the form has taken a few knocks since.
From 2016, this Cheltenham Festival infographic details the winning favourites over each day of the prestigious festival. The 'placing £10 on every favourite' part is especially interesting, it looks to have ben very much a winning strategy in 2012, but anything but since! It will be interesting to see how the favourites fare in 2018. It's not long now until we get to find out!
Jockey Edward Greatrex has struck a
rich vein of form in recent weeks, recording seven winners from 17
rides – at a strike rate of 41% – in the last 14 days. One of
those winners, New Rich, attempts to repeat his course and
distance win 11 days ago in the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap
(4.35) at Kempton on Tuesday and appears to have bright prospects of
doing so. Eve Johnson Houghton’s 8-year-old was ending a losing run
stretching back nearly two years, but his record of 7-41 on the
all-weather, including five course and distance wins, isn’t a bad
rate of return for a horse of moderate ability and a 4lb rise in the
weights looks fair enough. Admittedly, the Bahamian Bounty gelding
has yet to win back-to-back races in his 65-race career, but has won
three times off a handicap mark of 61, so his current mark of 55 is
hardly insurmountable if he’s in the same mood.
