According to Oxford Living
dictionaries, one definition of value is “the worth of something
compared to the price paid or asked for it”, which is more than
adequate for the purposes of this article. In horse racing circles,
what we’re really talking about, though, is value for money, in
reference to a selection that is well worth the stake money invested
on it.
However, in recent years – thanks in
no large part to Pricewise, the flagship tipping column of the Racing
Post – the word “value” has developed a strangely impalpable,
will-o’-the-wisp connotation. Regardless of the hoo-ha and hogwash,
though, there is no fundamental secret to spotting value in horse
racing. As American actor Will Rogers once said, “A difference of
opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries”, so it follows
that value, too, is a matter of opinion.
Bookmakers and the betting public make
a subjective assessment of the winning chance of each horse in a
race, which is reflected in the odds offered and how those odds
fluctuate between the opening show and the “off” of the race in
question. The task facing the value-seeking punter, then, is to make
his or her won subjective assessment of the winning chance of each
horse and compare the results with the odds available. If the odds
available are longer than expected – that is, in the opinion of the
punter, the horse is more likely to win than the odds suggest – the
horse represents a value-for-money betting opportunity.
Obviously, it almost goes without saying you must be accurate and realistic in your assessment of a race in the first place, but spotting value doesn’t, necessarily, mean identifying likely winners at fancy prices. Pricewise may not be interested in tipping a favourite at even money but, if that favourite should be, say, 4/6 in your opinion, it still offers outstanding value for money. In short, value-for-money betting opportunities occur across the whole spectrum of prices and the more accurate you become in assessing horses’ relative chances of winning the more you’ll find.
